The Irrelevant End of China's One-Child Policy?

Chinaâ??s one-child policy is crumbling in the face of popular discontent and demographic reality. Last month Guangdong, the prosperous southern province which is also Chinaâ??s most populous, appealed to Beijing to end it. But do not imagine that doing so is going to make a crucial difference to the rapid aging of Chinaâ??s population.

Though the total population will continue to rise for the next 15 or so years, the number of working age people (15 to 64) is peaking about now, will stay on a plateau for several years and then begin a gradual decline.

It is now received wisdom in the west that Chinaâ??s enforcement of the policy is the cause of a singularly rapidly aging population and that sex selection is rampant across Asia, leading to a large excess of boys. It is also now being alleged in some quarters that frantic western promotion of birth control in developing countries since the 1960s has been at least partly responsible for such gender discrimination. The wisdom ignores the facts.