With an economy seemingly on the precipice of a renewed recession, an angry conservative movement that regards him with disdain, and a disillusioned liberal base disappointed in his first term, Barack Obamaâ??s bid for reelection next year will, by all indications, be a tough, maybe even uphill fight. But daunting as the campaign may seem, the president can at least take some solace in a precedent from 64 years ago: Harry Trumanâ??s campaign for reelection in 1948â??successful, despite a poor economic climate, and a polarized electorateâ??offers a promising path for Obamaâ??s reelection. The question is whether heâ??s prepared to take it.
In terms of the difficulties they faced, these two Democratic presidencies have plenty of parallels. Most prominently, both were hampered by crippling midterm elections, fueled largely by anger about the poor state of the economy, which produced sweeping and across-the-board loss of seats for their party in Congress. In 2010, Democrats lost 63 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate, losing the House after four years in the majority and losing most of their comfortable cushion in the Senate. In 1946, Democrats lost 55 seats in the Houseâ??where Republicans grabbed a comfortable majority for the first time in sixteen yearsâ??and 13 seats in the Senate, giving Republicans there a 51-45 edge, their first majority in fourteen years.
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