July 22, 1948 is a red-letter day in alternate history. On that date, a new nation could have been born in the North America. A referendum on the constitutional future of the Dominion of Newfoundland — until then a separate entity within the British Commonwealth, with the same level of independence as Australia or New Zealand [1] — produced a slight majority for confederation with Canada, by 78,323 votes to 71,334. A swing of just 3,500 votes would have created a new state in the extreme northeast of the North American continent.
Now nearing the 64th anniversary of its Independence Day, that Republic of Newfoundland — blessed with a small population [2] and ample natural resources [3] — might have become a beacon of state-sponsored prosperity à la Scandinavia. Or independence might have aggravated a dormant border dispute with Quebec, opening the door to instability, conflict and outside meddling.
What if, in those scary first years of the cold war, Stalin had managed to use Newfie [4] sovereignty, and more specifically the dispute over its newly internationalized border, as a chance to interfere directly in North American affairs? Newfoundland could have been an earlier, colder Cuba — but with a foothold on the American mainland.
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