We stand on the precipice of the greatest economic disaster since the Great Depression. It is associated with the exogenous shock of a novel Coronavirus that originated in Wuhan China and quickly spread into a worldwide pandemic.
The sequence of events leading to this crisis, not the virus itself, deserves to be called a “Black Swan.” Biology dictates that pandemics will recur and at unpredictable intervals. Pandemics claim human lives, ruin health, and depress economic activity, but they are not expected to alter the shape of society as we know it. The Medieval Black Death is an exception. Coronavirus could be as well with wrong policy choices.
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