Putin About to Cross His Version of the Rubicon

Julius Caesar, when he crossed the Rubicon to march on Rome, reportedly declared, Alea iacta est – the die is cast – because he knew that by defying the Roman Senate’s order to stay north of the river, he had made an irreconcilable decision that would end in either victory or death. Today, President Putin stands on the banks of a Rubicon of his own choice and making. Will he choose war or just all measures short of war to coerce Ukraine? As an astute student of Russian history, Putin knows what failed wars bring to Russian leaders and regimes. Furthermore, as a person knowledgeable of his nation’s rich literature, he probably understands from Tolstoy’s War and Peace that war has a logic of its own and, once started, leaders find themselves less at the head of events and more in the middle of a series of shifting circumstances. However, if Putin chooses war, he and the Russian nation will ride the whirlwind of chance and unpredictable events. Where Russia would land after riding this whirlwind is unknown, but where President Putin hopes it will land is clear.