In retrospect the Union victory appears inevitable. The Confederate struggle looked doomed, lost in the romantic imagery of a Lost Cause. Large-scale industrialization, a much larger population, more capital, more resources, more military ships and weapons, and a better transportation network gave the North a huge advantage. At the time, the military outcome of the war was unknown and uncertain.
Did the South have any chance of winning? The North did have a great advantage, but the South was not without its own resources, including superior officers, the prospect of foreign help and alliances, a captive labor force, and the benefit of fighting a defensive war on familiar soil. Southerners believed they had superior officers, and indeed a larger percentage of Southern military leaders had attended West Point than their counterparts in the North. Additionally, a larger proportion of Southern military commanders had fought in the Mexican War. Southerners also believed their people were better prepared to fight in a war since most of their population—primarily a rural one—was proficient in riding horses, hunting, and shooting—all qualities that would prove important in the forthcoming war.
Southern strategists believed they held another important advantage in that the Union, to win the war, would have to invade and occupy the Confederacy. This forced Lincoln to conduct an aggressive war to eliminate Confederate armies and will. Such campaigns would be difficult given the size of the Confederacy, the amount of men and material required to achieve victory (which was far beyond the capacity of the Army in 1860), and the scarcity of qualified officers to lead such tremendous forces deep into hostile territory. At the same time, Davis did not have to invade the North and only had to avoid defeat long enough for the Union to decide that the cost of preserving the Union was too great. In other words, Lincoln had to win a war on a scale never attempted by Americans, while Davis just had to avoid losing.
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