After years of assembling the annual “worst predictions” list for POLITICO Magazine, I’ve come to understand a difference, subtle but distinct, between bad predictions and ones that are truly awful.
We start with a quick taxonomy of three different bad prediction archetypes:
Misreading: When you make a sincere, clear-eyed attempt to see things as they are, and come to a reasonable conclusion — but the great world spins and things turn out differently because you missed something that proved important. (Example: A political pundit looking at high inflation rates, general voter dissatisfaction and historic midterm trends and concluding that Democrats will get wiped out in the November elections.)
Wishcasting: When you base a prediction less on a sober reading of what is likely to happen than on what you’d personally like to happen. (For a non-political example, me predicting in August that this will be the year the Detroit Lions win the Super Bowl.)
“I Know Better, But Must Rally the Troops”: When you are aware that what you’re publicly predicting is quite unlikely, but are in a position of leadership and feel the need to project confidence, lest your supporters lose enthusiasm. (Example: Nancy Pelosi predicting in October that Democrats would not only hold the House, but expand their majority.)
