Was Portugal’s Carnation Revolution Inevitable?

The answer to this question depends on what we mean by ‘Carnation Revolution’. If it is the Portuguese army’s coup on 25 April 1974, designed to topple Marcelo Caetano’s government and set Portugal on a path towards democracy and decolonisation, then the answer is a qualified ‘yes’: the Estado Novo (New State), inaugurated by António Oliveira Salazar in 1932 and led by Caetano since 1968, was in a cul-de-sac of its own making, unable to evolve while tied to a set of unwinnable wars in Africa.