The Parabolic Collapse Scenario
Each day I hear echoes of the global unraveling of Bronze Age civilizations that delayed the course of human progress for centuries; the sounds of a globally interconnected submersible imploding under the titanic weight of the same crises that crushed once-thriving Bronze Age societies.
One cornerstone of Bronze Age collapse was a long period of severe drought, famine, and environmental degradation. Today, we grapple with the impacts of unchecked warming, melting ice caps, rising sea levels, disastrous wildfires, parched diminishing centralized farmland, water shortages, and devastating weather events. Combined, forces like these are edging a life-giving planet toward the limits of its carrying capacity.
In the Bronze Age, trade routes that once facilitated prosperity became vectors for collapse as marauding raiders disrupted economic networks. In the modern era, we see rampant cybercrime; persistent attacks on vital infrastructure; and supply chains unraveling due to geopolitical tensions. Water riots in Mexico City; utter devastation in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, elsewhere, disruptions of Red Sea traffic, anarchy in Haiti, today, portend a global trade network that once fueled progress becoming a double-edged sword pointing toward a cascade of social, economic, and government breakdowns.
In the Bronze Age, migrations and invasions by displaced populations hastened the collapse. In contemporary society, political discord, fueled by economic disparities and resource scarcity, internal violence and international war, tragically leads to mass migrations of vulnerable refugees. Nations, overwhelmed by the influx of displaced peoples face social upheaval, strained resources, and the erosion of the shared political structures and social norms that underlie healthy communities. Censorship of long-simmering grievances about injustices in most quarters no longer restrains masses seeking a harvest of discontent and violence. Growing resource scarcity has fueled growing conflicts that have us now at the brink of a world war between great nations with unprecedented destructive power.
The Bronze Age collapse witnessed the decline of advanced technologies. Today, technological advancements far outpace societal adaptability. Artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and autonomous systems, once hailed as the epitome of progress, have become the catalysts for societal disruption. The unchecked influence of technology exacerbates and weaponizes lies, prejudices and inequalities, contributing further to the erosion of social cohesion and trust in institutions and people.
What Next?
Slowly, at first, then suddenly, it happens.
Joseph A. Tainter, in his influential book titled "The Collapse of Complex Societies," published in 1988, concluded that all collapsed civilizations had one thing in common. They reached a point of diminishing returns on investment in complexity. The costs of maintaining the complex systems needed to manage the civilization outweighed the benefits. The failure to quicky adapt to the realization that the system that once worked won’t with transcendental, transformational innovation, argues Tainter, leads to a collapse of the societal structure.
On “60 Minutes,” Federal Reserve Chairman, Jay Powell, recently counseled the nation that our current rate of return on investment in what highly esteemed journalist, Bill Moyers, called plutocracy, is not sustainable. Though we live in an AI Bubble that offers some hope of relief, the results we reap from our already deeply indentured labors speak for themselves. Whether we address failing systems collectively, responsibly, and quickly, with AI as aid not Master, or fritter away precious time fighting over false choices, will decide if we learn from the past and advance the evolution of the species or repeat its mistakes and bequeath the next generation helpless.
Scott Beckman, retired, team player on economic development and affordable housing projects from coast to coast for forty years.
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